Seat at the Table

In a big, bold, top of the page headline, USA Today predicted that a US Government Flu Report Predicts Chaos.

Actually, the report says IF a report happens, it COULD spark chaos.  The article reports it as “when a pandemic will occur” and talks all about chaos as if it’s the likely scenario.  Sure it is…if you keep publishing these headlines.

This is an example of the worst kind of spin.  Taking information and putting it in a context where it will help you own cuase, but at the cost of telling the story that most appropriately reflects the real facts, likelihoods and, in this case, sources of information.  The US government was just putting out a what-if scenario and not saying it was likely to happen.

I actually do think there’s such a thing as reponsible spin.  It’s putting a context on news and information that most accurately reflects the bottom line facts and/or original intent (e.g., the intent of the US government report was to be prepared for a long-shot, what-if scenario, not a “it will happen” scenario).

That means an article like USA Today’s would point out the odds of a flu epidemic happening, and, if it happens, the odds of chaos happening.  In both cases, it’s actually pretty low.  A more accurate headline would actually state that US Government Report Prepares for Possible, though Unlikely (note: statistically speaking) Flu Epidemic Scenarios (that’s right, multiple, not just one chaotic one).

In addition inside the story, the reporter would include some facts to balance out the possible scenarios.  Here’s an quick short recent history from a University of Chicago student paper that perhaps will put this in context.

“”In 1997, this precise virus—bird flu (H5N1)—had the media in a frenzy. The Center for Disease Control issued stern warnings. Authorities killed 1.5 million chickens.

The human casualties? Six.

In 1976, United States authorities panicked over a “swine-type” influenza An “outbreak” in Fort Dix, New Jersey. The authorities proceeded to attempt to vaccinate the entire country.

The “outbreak?” A single death.

However, the vaccine killed 25 people.”"

In other words, maybe the best headline would read: Government Report May Scare the Hell Out of You, But History Says Scaring is All That’s Likely to Happen.